Let the (March) Madness Begin: Tourney Tips From Our Resident Bracketologist

Prof. Tim Chartier, Joseph R. Morton Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at Davidson College, specializes in sports analytics and has worked with students over the years to develop ranking methods that help fans edge closer to their elusive goal. Here, Chartier and Ellis Sriram ’26 offer up data-based insights for women’s basketball fans who are budding bracketologists. 

Tips for the men’s tourney coming soon! 

What percentage of top seeds have made the final four?

Since expansion, there are an average of 2.30 number one seeds in the final four, 0.77 two seeds, 0.47 three seeds, and 0.23 four seeds. The average seed in the final four is 1.92,and since COVID, four seed hasn’t made the final four.

In the same time period for the MBB tournament, there is an average of 1.53 one seeds, 0.80 two seeds, 0.43 three seeds and 0.40 four seeds in the final four. The average seed in the final four is 3.08, and since COVID this number has lowered to 4.25. Since 2021, there hasn’t been a three seed in the final four, and from 2014-2024 a four seed hadn’t made the final four.

How often is there a 5-12 upset?

There is on average a 0.90 5-12 upsets a year, since COVID that has bumped up to 1.25 5-12 upsets a year. 

There were 0 5-12 upsets in 2024, which was the first time that had happened since COVID. There is an average of 1.53 5-12 upsets a year in the MBB tournament, since COVID that number has fallen to 1.25.

Has a 16 seed won?

There has been one 1-16 upset since the WBB tournament expansion, which occurred when Harvard beat Stanford 71-67 in the first round of the 1998 tournament. 

There had not been a 1-16 upset in MBB until 2018, when UMBC beat Virginia 74-54. Since then, there has been one more 1-16 upset when FDU beat Purdue 63-58 in 2023.

How close are the ratings for top teams this year compared to other years? 

The top three and top five is by FAR the closest it’s ever been, and the range on the top 10 and top 30 is the closest it’s been in the date range. We are potentially in for a wild ride!

If you made a bracket by seed, how many years would WBB beat MBB?

If you made a bracket where the higher seed wins, using ESPN scoring rules, the WBB bracket would beat the MBB bracket 77% of the time, and would have won every year since COVID. 

Additionally, the WBB bracket would have won the last 9 tournaments, and 14 of the last 15.

Additional Information:

No team that is not a top three seed has ever won the WBB tournament.

Both two seeds and three seeds are undefeated in the first round of the WBB tournament.

All data based off of post-expansion WBB March Madness (since 1994).